Hard total · Dealer shows 10
Hard 15 vs a dealer 10
Basic strategySurrender if allowed. Otherwise hit.
Why
Fifteen against a 10 loses either way, but hitting is clearly better than standing. Unlike 16, you can draw any card from ace to 6 without busting, which is almost half the deck.
Surrender edges out hitting by a fraction of a percent. In a shoe game, surrender 16 against 9, 10 and ace, 15 against a 10, and, when the dealer hits soft 17, 15 and 17 against an ace.
By the numbers
Average result per $100 initial bet, after the dealer checks for blackjack. A negative number is an average loss; the best play is the one that loses least or wins most.
| Play | Dealer hits soft 17 | Dealer stands on soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| Hit | −$50.44Best w/o surrender | −$50.44Best w/o surrender |
| Stand | −$54.04 | −$54.04 |
| Double (2× bet) | −$100.89 | −$100.89 |
| Surrender (if offered) | −$50.00Best | −$50.00Best |
Without surrender, hit beats stand by $3.60 per $100 bet under either soft-17 rule.
Infinite-deck model, which tracks a 6–8 deck shoe closely. Double after split allowed, no resplits. How we calculate.
How the table rules change it
| Table rules (4–8 decks, double after split unless noted) | Play |
|---|---|
| Dealer hits soft 17, no surrender Most Florida and Las Vegas tables | Hit |
| Dealer hits soft 17, surrender allowed Some higher-limit tables | Surrender |
| Dealer stands on soft 17, no surrender Felt says “stands on all 17s” | Hit |
| Dealer stands on soft 17, surrender allowed Best common shoe game | Surrender |
The rules change this play. Read the felt before you sit down.
Common mistake
Standing on 15 because you're afraid of busting. Your bust risk when hitting 15 is about 54%, but standing loses even more because the dealer rarely busts from a 10.
Going further
Hi-Lo counters stand on 15 vs 10 at a true count of +4 or higher. In a surrender game, they surrender at 0 or higher and hit below it.
Drill it
This hand first, then the spots people mix it up with. The switches match your table’s rules and carry over to the full trainer.
Questions
Does it matter what my 15 is made of?
In a shoe game, barely. 10-5, 9-6 and 8-7 are all hits when you can't surrender.
Is surrender available at Florida casinos?
Usually not on regular tables at Seminole casinos, according to player reports. Some high-limit tables reportedly offer it. Check the felt or ask the dealer.