Reference · Computed odds
Blackjack odds
The real probabilities behind the strategy: how often the dealer busts by upcard, how often you bust when you hit, and how often blackjack shows up. Computed below, not copied.
Dealer outcomes by upcard
Where the dealer's hand ends up, given the upcard, in a standard game where the dealer stands on all 17s. Computed exactly for an infinite deck, which tracks a 6 to 8 deck shoe closely.
| Upcard | Bust | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Blackjack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.4% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 37.4% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 39.4% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 41.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 42.3% | 16.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| 7 | 26.2% | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 8 | 24.5% | 12.9% | 35.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 9 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 35.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 34.2% | 3.5% | 7.7% |
| A | 11.5% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 30.8% |
Rows sum to 100% apart from rounding. The 5 and 6 are the famous bust cards: the dealer fails to make a hand more than 40% of the time.
Your chance of busting when you hit
The probability that one more card busts a hard hand. This table is the reason basic strategy hits hard 16 against a 10 and stands on 12 against a 6.
| Your hand | Bust if you hit | Survive |
|---|---|---|
| Hard 12 | 30.8% | 69.2% |
| Hard 13 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Hard 14 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Hard 15 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Hard 16 | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Hard 17 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
Infinite deck. Hitting hard 16 busts about 62% of the time, which sounds terrible until you compare it with standing and losing to the dealer's made hand even more often.
How often blackjack appears
In a 6-deck shoe, you are dealt blackjack about 4.7% of the time, roughly once every 21 hands. The dealer gets blackjack at the same rate, which is why the "dealer checks for blackjack" rule matters: it saves you from doubling and splitting into a dealer blackjack you could not see.
That 1-in-21 frequency is the engine of the whole game. At 3:2, those blackjacks are the main reason the house edge stays near 0.5%. At 6:5, the same frequency quietly transfers about 1.4% back to the casino. The full 6:5 math.
For an independent cross-check of these figures, the Wizard of Odds blackjack appendix publishes the same distributions derived independently.
What the odds mean for strategy
Basic strategy is these tables turned into decisions. You hit 16 vs 10 because the dealer makes a hand about 77% of the time, so standing loses more often than the 62% bust rate of hitting. You stand on 12 vs 6 because the dealer busts 42% of the time, so the 31% risk of busting your 12 is the worse gamble. Every "weird" play on the chart is one of these comparisons, and the trainer drills them until they feel obvious.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of winning a hand of blackjack?
With perfect basic strategy, you win roughly 42 to 43% of hands, lose about 48 to 49%, and push the rest. Those widely published figures are why the game needs the 3:2 blackjack bonus to stay close.
What is the house edge with perfect basic strategy?
About 0.5% on a typical 3:2 shoe game where the dealer hits soft 17. Rule changes move it: 6:5 adds about 1.4%, dealer hitting soft 17 costs about 0.2%.
How often will I get blackjack?
About 4.75% of hands in a 6-deck shoe, roughly once every 21 hands. That frequency is exactly why the 3:2 versus 6:5 payout matters so much.
Which dealer upcard busts most?
The 5 and 6. The dealer busts about 42% of the time showing a 5 or 6, which is why basic strategy stands on stiff hands and doubles aggressively against them.